As per a report from ET, following the festive season and adjustments in the lending business in response to RBI measures, Jefferies expects significant growth in Paytm’s Gross Merchandise Value (GMV). The brokerage firm forecasts a 34% year-on-year (YoY) surge in total revenue, reaching Rs 2,764 crore, while losses are expected to decrease to Rs 276 crore.
During the previous quarter, Paytm experienced a loss of Rs 290 crore, accompanied by a 32% improvement in revenue from operations, amounting to Rs 2,519 crore.Here’s what various brokerages expect from Paytm’s Q3 results:
CLSA
CLSA expects Paytm to deliver in-line numbers for Q3, citing that the impact of the tightening in Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) disbursements will fully materialise in 4QFY24. The brokerage expects a 40% GMV growth, a modest quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) decline in payment net take rate, and an 8% QoQ decrease in loan disbursements. Adjusted EBITDA is anticipated to see only a marginal increase.
Axis Capital
Expectations from Axis Capital include a robust contribution margin QoQ (approximately 56%) and a steady improvement in adjusted EBITDA, reaching Rs 1.9 billion compared to Rs 1.5 billion in the previous quarter. The impact on Paytm’s Postpaid business is expected to be limited to one month.
YES Securities
YES Securities assumes a 6% QoQ growth in Payments Services to Consumers, 12% QoQ growth in Payments Services to Merchants, and 6% QoQ growth in Financial Services and Others. This leads to an overall 8.1% QoQ growth in revenue from operations. The forecast for Payment Processing Charges (PPC) as a proportion of payment revenue is 54.5%, with an estimated Total Expenses (excluding PPC) growth of 6% QoQ. The expected EBITDA margin (excluding Other Income and after ESOP cost) is -8.3%, showing an 89 bps QoQ improvement.
Motilal Oswal
Motilal Oswal estimates a 37% YoY growth in GMV for 3QFY24, reaching Rs 4.8 trillion. The value of loans disbursed is expected to moderate due to a cautious approach toward Personal Loans and Postpaid loans. Revenue from operations is projected to grow by 32% YoY to Rs 27.3 billion, while contribution profit is estimated to increase by 42% YoY to Rs 14.9 billion, resulting in a contribution margin of approximately 55%. The expected adjusted EBITDA is Rs 2.04 billion.
